CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-03-01T18:24:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Mar 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning positive polarity CH HSS
influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 9 nT and the Bz
component was mostly northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds
decreased from ~550 km/s to between ~450-500 km/s over the past 24
hours. The Phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail for the
remainder of 03 Mar through early 04 Mar. Enhanced conditions are likely
by midday on 04 Mar, through early 05 Mar, due to the anticipated
arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period as
positive polarity CH HSS influences diminished.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 03 Mar.
Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely, with a chance for
G2 (Moderate) levels, on 04-05 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a
CME that left the Sun on 01 Mar.


~~~~


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Mar 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative waning positive polarity CH HSS
influence. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-7 nT and the
Bz component was mostly northward. Solar wind speeds steadily declined
from ~600 km/s to ~445 km/s over the past 24 hours. Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced over
03 Mar due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. A stronger
solar wind enhancement is likely by midday on 04 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Mar.

~~~~

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Mar 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The strongest flare of the
period, a C9.5 at 01/2301 UTC, originated from an unseen source on or
beyond the SE limb. Region 4007 (S10W24, Dao/beta) continued to exhibit
growth while Region 4009 (N12E01, Dso/beta) began to show signs of 
decay. New Regions 4011 (S19E51, Axx/alpha), 4012 (S13E68, Cao/beta),
and 4013 (S04E67, Axx/alpha) were numbered. The remaining regions on the
visible disk were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included a filament eruption in the SE quadrant that
began at around 01/1700 UTC. The subsequent CME, first observed in
LASCO/SOHO C2 imagery at 01/1812 UTC, was analyzed to have an
Earth-directed component. Model guidance suggests this CME is likely to
arrive at Earth around midday on 04 Mar.

~~~~

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Mar 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest flare of the period, a
C9.5, came from a yet-to-be-numbered area near the SE limb at 01/2301
UTC. Region 4010 (N24E19, Bxo/beta) produced an impulsive C6.4/Sf at
01/0830 UTC. Region 4009 (N11E10, Dso/beta) and Region 4007 (S10W18,
Dao/beta) both exhibited growth. The remaining numbered active regions
on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in decay. New regions
of flux were observed rotating on to the SE quadrant.

Other activity included the eruption of a filament channel in the SE
quadrant, which began around 01/1700 UTC. Subsequent LASCO/SOHO C2
imagery contained a CME signature beginning at 01/1812 UTC. Analysis and
modelling of the event is ongoing to determine if an Earth-directed
component was produced.
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